SWODY1
SPC AC 201249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE PLNS/LWR MS
VLY THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SWD-MOVING JET STREAKS REFORM NE
PACIFIC UPR LOW FARTHER S OFF THE BC CST. IN THE SRN STREAM...
DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING NRN BAJA CA SHOULD CONTINUE ENE ACROSS NRN
SONORA/SRN AZ TODAY...AND INTO W TX EARLY SAT.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
INTO TX SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS SFC RIDGE NOSES SW FROM THE TN VLY.
WRN PART OF BOUNDARY WILL REFORM NWD AS WARM FRONT THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SE FROM STRENGTHENING LEE-SIDE LOW
OVER SE CO.
...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY...
SATELLITE-DERIVED AND GPS PW DATA SHOW AXIS OF MODEST MOISTURE /WITH
VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCHES/ EXTENDING FROM FAR W TX INTO SW KS.
INTENSIFICATION OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD OR
WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS NEWD INTO SW KS.
LOW LEVEL WAA...AND POSSIBLY INCREASING DPVA AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN
STREAM IMPULSE...MAY MAINTAIN STORM POTENTIAL OVER PARTS CNTRL/SRN
NM AND FAR W TX AFTER SUNSET.
...CNTRL PLNS TONIGHT...
SWLY LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH NWD REDEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE...ASSOCIATED WAA SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD TO
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN KS AS PW SLOWLY INCREASES TO
AROUND 1 INCH. MUCAPE COULD REACH 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG OVER SE
KS FOR A FEW HOURS OR SO BEGINNING AROUND 06Z SAT...OWING MAINLY TO
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT/EML. BUT GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK /25 KT/ WNWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IN SHORT WAVE
RIDGE...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION
SVR PROBABILITIES.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/20/2009
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