SWODY1
SPC AC 201916
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
FROM ERN CO SWD INTO NM. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE
CNTRL AND WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TX NWD INTO SRN KS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
WRN AND CNTRL KS LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD POTENTIALLY SPREADING SWD INTO OK AND WEST TX LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 06Z IN CNTRL KS SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES
COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXIST FROM NE NM EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL KS.
THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 03/20/2009
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