SWODY1
SPC AC 061943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND CNTRL CA...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF
THE COAST OF CA WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT LOCATED ABOUT
150 TO 200 STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE WEST OF LOS ANGELES. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THIS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LIFT ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS ALONG
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTS OF SRN AND CNTRL
CA TO THE WRN MOJAVE DESERT AND SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ALONG THE CA COAST
NORTH AND WEST OF LOS ANGELES. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT
VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE SHOWS ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR. THIS
WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS FROM THE COASTAL MTN
RANGES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 02/06/2009
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