SWOD48
SPC AC 061000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2009
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BECOME PROMINENT DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROVIDING
POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING/SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TIER STATES...PARTICULARLY IN COMPARISON TO THE RECENT
EXTENDED LULL IN THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST ECMWF AND
MREF SUGGEST THAT A MODERATE TO STRONG INLAND RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE COULD COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL STRONG IMPULSE
ACCELERATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS BEGINS TO
GROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS IT IS
PROGGED TO ADVANCE TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND...
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS GROWS CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 02/06/2009
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