SWODY1
SPC AC 131253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT ENEWD
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER CO VALLEY
TO CO/NM...AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO
THE GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND ALONG THE WA COAST...AND
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATE/POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST /AND THE ACCOMPANYING
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL DRIFT EWD/OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT.
A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP SWD FROM KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE/ WRN
OK BY TONIGHT. THE INDUCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS NWD
FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR. INSTEAD...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE PATH OF THE
EJECTING LOWER CO VALLEY TROUGH...WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL
ASCENT/MOISTENING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY.
MID LEVEL CONVECTION COULD ALSO SPREAD ENEWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 11/13/2009
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