SWODY3
SPC AC 130755
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN CONUS MID-UPPER LOW...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-2
OUTLOOK...IS FCST TO MOVE FROM 4-CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN ROCKIES
TO TX PANHANDLE DURING PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT SFC
FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOME PART OF CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX
DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...WITH LOW MOVING ENEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX
REGION BY 16/12Z. COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD MOVE SEWD FROM
W-CENTRAL/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
PACIFIC INVOF 33N135W. GIVEN ITS PRESENCE OVER LARGE OBSERVATIONAL
DATA VOID...MODELS APPEAR TO BE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN FCST OF
THIS FEATURE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEX EARLY THIS PERIOD...THEN EWD
ACROSS LOWER-MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL TX AFTER
16/00Z...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.
...ARKLATEX REGION TO CENTRAL/SW TX...
THOUGH STILL INCOMPLETE WITH REGARD TO OPTIMAL AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM
CONDITIONS OVER GULF...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED BY
DAY-3 TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF CONVECTION..ON
EITHER SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT.
GIVEN POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH AND ITS RELATIVE
DETACHMENT/DISPLACEMENT FROM WARM SECTOR...850 MB WINDS SE OF COLD
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...LIMITING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BY CONTRAST...SE FRINGE
OF 500 AND 250 MB JETS WILL OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE AND AT LEAST
SMALL SLICE OF WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SYSTEM GEOMETRY/TIMING WILL KEEP NEARLY ALL
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN
TROUGH AWAY FROM SFC WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE MIDLEVEL
DPVA/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH WEAKER SRN-STREAM SYSTEM...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT STILL WILL BE WEAK...COMBINING WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THETAE TO LIMIT BOTH DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY. THOUGH AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN AGGREGATE...SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN ATTM FOR SPECIFIC
AREA OF AOA 5% GRID PROBABILITIES.
..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2009
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