DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130547
SWODY1
SPC AC 130545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A
WRN STATES TROUGH DEEPENS. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL TRAVEL EWD INTO THE NRN PLNS
STATES BY FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM JETLET OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN WILL QUICKLY
EJECT NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL PLNS DURING THE DAY.
DOWNSTREAM...DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE ALONG THE CAROLINA CST WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE WRN ATLC BASIN.

IN THE LWR-LVLS...CDFNT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS EARLY FRI WILL
CONTINUE A SEWD/SWD MOVEMENT TO A LK SUP...IA...ERN KS...NWRN OK AND
NERN NM LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. WRN EXTENTS OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STNRY AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE IN
THE DAY.

...FOUR-CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL PLNS...
SURGES OF FRESH CP AIR HAVE PENETRATED WELL S INTO THE NWRN
CARIBBEAN AND SRN MEX/CNTRL AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
CONSEQUENTLY...DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WRN
STATES TROUGH WILL ONLY MANAGE TO TRANSPORT A HIGHLY MODIFIED CP AIR
MASS NWD THROUGH TX INTO THE PLNS. LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH EXPECTED WARM MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/TSTM PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR.

HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION NEWD TO THE CNTRL PLNS. LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE WRN STATES TROUGH DEVELOPS. STEEP LAPSE RATE
PLUME AND MOISTENING PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING BANDS OF
CONVECTION AND WDLY SCTD TSTMS FROM LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTN W
OF THE CONTDVD...THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS. NO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

...PAC NW...
CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI MORNING
INTO THE AFTN WITHIN THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS WRN WA AND
NWRN ORE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/13/2009

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