SWODY1
SPC AC 140600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
AREA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. INTO
THE CAROLINAS...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES SATURDAY...REACHING
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SERN U.S. WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
REACHING THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
..GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...
OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NWRN AND CNTRL GULF. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
EARLY SATURDAY...THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SERN U.S. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
INITIAL MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND RESULT IN
RATHER LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING BOW ECHOES
AND SUPERCELLS. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE NEAR THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. IF THESE STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
ALONG THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
ADVANCE INTO THIS REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF EWD
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.DIAL.. 04/14/2007
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