SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140634
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-140730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA...WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 136...138...
VALID 140634Z - 140730Z
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS ONGOING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF FRONTAL WAVE...EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LA
INTO THE HOUSTON VICINITY. THIS IS APPARENTLY OCCURRING IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LIFT IN NARROW MOIST TONGUE CHARACTERIZED
BY LOWER 70S DEW POINTS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. AS A SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...40-50 KT MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH 09-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BOWING SEGMENTS
MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURSTS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AND...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR SATURATED
PROFILES AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST
KILOMETER OR SO MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.
.KERR.. 04/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
31339325 32089264 32749180 33529084 33528984 32548966
31669036 30929118 30449208 30469295 30699324
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