SWODY1
SPC AC 251642
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
..FAR SOUTHERN ND AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST
KS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MT/NORTHWEST WY AT MIDDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER...AND A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY/EASTERN CO. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH PRIMARILY 40S/SOME LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS IN THE
AMBIENT WARM SECTOR.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH...INITIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SD INTO WESTERN NEB. MODERATELY STRONG WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASINGLY
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...WITH A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A SMALL MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS
EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SD/NEB WITH THE HAIL/WIND
THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM AND SOUTHWEST TX...
A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOUTH EXTENT
ACROSS EASTERN CO AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AS NOTED IN THE 12Z EL PASO SOUNDING AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
ARE MODEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..OZARKS/OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA/WESTERN NY...
WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH/FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/MO. OBSERVATIONAL
DATA DEPICTS RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR
ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION/WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
MULTICELLULAR/PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS.
.GUYER/HART.. 05/25/2007
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