MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0886

ACUS11 KWNS 251718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251718
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251718Z - 251945Z

A CORRIDOR OF MORE FOCUSED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OH...EWD INTO WRN PA AND PARTS OF WRN NY...OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...OVERALL POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION IN MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM OH INTO WRN NY ATTM. FORCING WITH BOTH THE FRONT
AND LAKE BREEZE SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS NRN OH AND INTO NWRN PA
AND WRN NY WILL LIKELY FOCUS A FEW ROBUST TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLIER PIT SOUNDING ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTS IN SMALL HAIL AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
THUS...MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO
BE LACK OF BOTH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WINDS. WITH PRIMARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL
FLOW TRAILING THE COLD FRONT...STORM CHARACTER WILL BE CONFINED TO
PULSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AS STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. OF COURSE...MESO/STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE AND FRONT COULD LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD POSE THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

41428324 41488157 42067935 42647835 43107736 42927666
41897681 41277760 40417974 40348105 40408290 40608364
40868388 41208378

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