SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251733
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251733Z - 252000Z
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
POORLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
A WATCH AT THIS TIME.
STORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE FROM SWRN IND SWWD INTO SRN MO THROUGH LATE MORNING. MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ACROSS SERN MO...WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS
WITHIN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
REGION ADJUSTED WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULT IN SMALL HAIL.
THUS...IN ADDITION TO SOME LOCAL WIND POTENTIAL FROM WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS...A COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME
AND VERY LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF FASTER
WLYS...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
37549029 36929250 37459299 37919278 38399146 39198965
39908754 39878698 38908735
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