SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012203
WIZ000-MNZ000-012300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL MN / NWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...
VALID 012203Z - 012300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581
CONTINUES.
A CONCENTRATED SWATH OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WILL
OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE ENEWD FROM SWRN MN INTO E-CNTRL MN-NWRN WI
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
SWRN MN NEWD INTO NWRN WI. A COMPACT NEGATIVE TILT MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX IS MOVING FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS POTENT DISTURBANCE...TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE AOA 5000 J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WDL PROFILER SHOWS ONLY MODEST 0-1 KM SHEAR /AOB
10 KTS/ BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-8 KM SHEAR 40-50 KTS/...WILL
BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IN PLACE. AS SUCH...EXPECTING INTENSE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /PERHAPS VERY LARGE/ AND A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE TO ACCOMPANY ONGOING HP SUPERCELL CLUSTER AS
IT MOVES ENEWD FROM S-CNTRL MN AND IMPACTS THE MSP METRO BETWEEN
23Z-00Z. EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN ANY INTENSE HP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY CONTAIN AN ISOLD TORNADO.
..SMITH.. 07/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
LAT...LON 44999528 45849425 46309239 46169183 45509166 44949188
44609321 44259475 44429507 44999528
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