SWODY2
SPC AC 110550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MULTI-STREAM UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE NRN BRANCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY ARRIVING ON THE PAC NW
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO BY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM...POWERFUL UPR JET STREAM PUNCHES
ACROSS THE N PAC BASIN. 00Z NAM/GFS PORTRAY EXTREME DIFFERENCES
HANDLING SRN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT PAC NW SYSTEM. ATTM...ECMWF
AND UKMET AGREE WITH THE GFS IN CLOSING OFF A LOW AND DROPPING IT
SWD INTO NWRN MEXICO AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT
ENEWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE DEEP S DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT...TIED PRIMARILY TO THE NRN BRANCH
IMPULSE...WILL DROP SEWD REACHING A NEW ENGLAND...OH VLY...SRN
PLAINS LINE BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPETUS FOR SCT TSTMS ON MONDAY.
..SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
COMPLEX TSTM FCST WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE A GRADUAL MOISTENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MODIFIED
CP AIR MASS FLOWS NEWD FROM TX INTO THE MIDWEST. TSTMS MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY MONDAY...TIED TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE MIDWEST STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE
EWD DURING THE AFTN.
TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E
TX/WRN LA AS TAIL-END OF THE SRN PLAINS IMPULSE EJECTS EWD. FCST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THUS...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS...BUOYANCY WILL
BE LIMITED WITH STORMS LIKELY REMAINING SUB-SVR.
MEANWHILE...TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG/N OF A COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NRN OK/KS EWD
INTO THE MIDWEST AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCD WITH THE NRN
STREAM...SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ELEVATED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MINIMAL. THUS...SVR STORMS
ARE ALSO UNLIKELY OVER THESE AREAS.
.RACY.. 11/11/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment