SWODY2
SPC AC 130542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC APPEARS UNDERWAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY THURSDAY...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGS
MORE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AS THIS
OCCURS...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
AND...THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO
FINALLY WEAKEN WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION TO GAIN
MOMENTUM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN INTO
WESTERN AREAS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING LARGER
SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OF ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM BOTTOMS OUT AND GRADUALLY
TURNS EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
STRONGER COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS DURING THE DAY. LATER THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND BIG BEND
REGION...ENOUGH MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...AND THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION...WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD INTO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY...AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 01/13/2010
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