SWODY1
SPC AC 140056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME UPSTREAM FROM PERTURBATION NOW OVER
LOWER CO RIVER REGION. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
AZ...SMALL/DOWNSTREAM UPPER CYCLONE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
TX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL/NE TX OVERNIGHT.
LATTER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.
...NRN AZ...
OPTIMALLY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESIDUAL DIURNALLY WARMED
SFC TEMPS...AND MRGL MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A FEW SHALLOW
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS NW AZ...INVOF VORTICITY MAX THAT ACCOMPANIES
SWRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODIFIED FGZ RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
UP TO ABOUT 50 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE...LIKELY TO DIMINISH WITH
DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS REGIME SHIFTS EWD/SEWD ACROSS AZ
OVERNIGHT WILL LESSEN OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL. PROBABILITIES APPEAR
TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL FOR GEN TSTM AREA ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2010
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