SWODY3
SPC AC 130759
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW...WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW...
MAY BE A BIT SLOWER OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. BUT...THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...AS MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER VERY STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC
JET NOSING TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INTO/
THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION
LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
...TEXAS COAST...
GENERALLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY INLAND OF COASTAL
AREAS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT AN AREA OF ENHANCED
FORCING/SHEAR...WHICH MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY
12Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL SPEED MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE
LOW...MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. ONE OR TWO STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ...AND COULD REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONTAL WAVE BEGINS TO
EVOLVE OFFSHORE.
..KERR.. 01/13/2010
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