SWOD48
SPC AC 130952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
MORE TIME FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SIZABLE DIFFERENCES
PERSIST AMONG MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY REMAIN UNCLEAR. THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER
FLOW IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PROBABLY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ONSET OF
A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE GULF STATES...IF NOT A LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
BECOMES TOO LARGE BY THAT EXTENDED TIME FRAME TO REASONABLY
DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA.
..KERR.. 01/13/2010
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