ACUS11 KWNS 051919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051919
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-052045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN TX INTO SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051919Z - 052045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THREAT PERHAPS BECOMING
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE EVOLVING CU FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA...AS A WEAK TROUGH/COOL
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS E TX. AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ATTM...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AS A
MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY VEERED/WLY WHICH WILL MITIGATE APPRECIABLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND
THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.
..GOSS/HART.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28359606 28539729 29279833 30239850 31199751 31799420
31479183 30779067 29729076 29279160 29479385 28779505
28359606
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