MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2102

ACUS11 KWNS 052243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052243
LAZ000-MSZ000-060015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 052243Z - 060015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
IS INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...DCVA ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS BECOMING MANIFEST AS DEEPENING CONVECTION INVOF THE
SRN-LA/SWRN-MS BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CHARACTERIZES THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT LIES
FROM A MESO-LOW 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE GULF
WATERS SOUTH OF GULFPORT MS. LITTLE INHIBITION EXISTS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR FOR PARCELS EMANATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY NEAR THE FRONT
WHILE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIDELL VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 51 KT OF
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM AGL
WILL YIELD SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. WEAK SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN NOTED NEAR AND ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN PER SLIDELL RADAR
DATA. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADO...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 28999003 29029082 29389171 29619223 30339264 30899241
30989152 30719032 30528982 30078912 29718879 29128893
28938950 28999003

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