SWODY1
SPC AC 200538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSLATING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LATITUDES WILL RESULT IN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NOW OVER NRN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...AND SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
INTO SRN PLAINS.
..LOWER MI SWD TO ERN TX/LA...
SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S OVER
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE TX/LA COASTS.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MLCAPES TO AOB 500
J/KG WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF SRN/ERN TX INTO LA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
NRN MEXICO VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FROM CNTRL/SRN MI SWWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND
PERHAPS ERN OK/AR AS LEADING EDGE OF GREATER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS SURFACE
COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/20/2007
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