SWODY3
SPC AC 200822
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE SERN STATES...LIKELY CLEARING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE ENE-WSW ACROSS THE NRN OR
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.
..THE SOUTHEAST...
DESPITE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EVENTUALLY MOVING E
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WHILE LINGERING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS OR LINE SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SERN
GA/THE ERN CAROLINAS COULD SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT --
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
.GOSS.. 11/20/2007
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