SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201036
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-201500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MA...VT...NH
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 201036Z - 201500Z
A 2-3 HOUR BURST OF MDT TO HVY SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VT...NH...AND NRN MA THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1
INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING SRN CANADA WAS CONTRIBUTING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SPREADING
EAST ACROSS ERN NY EARLY TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SWLY 30-35KT JET
WAS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO ERN NY. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
SFC-BASED COLD DOME RESIDING OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES SWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE RESULTANT PLUME OF LIGHT TO MDT PCPN QUITE WELL AND SUGGESTS 3H
QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...COINCIDING WITH STRONGEST MESOSCALE
ASCENT...EXTENDS FROM THE BERKSHIRES TO NRN VT. FURTHERMORE...MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C...SUGGESTING THE
PREDOMINATE PCPN-TYPE IN THIS ZONE SHOULD BE SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE AREA OF
CONCERN...FROM PARTS OF SWRN VT AND NWRN MA...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THESE AREAS.
RAPID EWD TRANSLATION OF THE PRECIPITATION PLUME...AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WITH
TIME...SHOULD LIMIT THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 3H IN ANY ONE LOCATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
.CARBIN.. 11/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
45167116 44577107 42577194 42237267 42407334 42967296
43437304 44167291 44697303 45007254
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