SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250103
TXZ000-250400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX FROM THE BIG BEND TOWARDS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 250103Z - 250400Z
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL EXPAND NEWD FROM THE
BIG BEND/SRN PERMIAN BASIN NEWD TOWARDS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND SRN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FROM
SW TO NE LATER THIS EVENING /MAINLY AFTER 03Z/ AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHIFTS EWD.
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE
PRESENCE OF HEAVY SNOW ORIENTED IN A SW TO NE BAND ACROSS MAINLY
PECOS/CRANE/UPTON COUNTIES. STRONG ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER SONORA AND LOWER-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS W-CNTRL TX...DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW /PER 00Z MAF
RAOB/...WITH HEAVY SNOW SPREADING NEWD MAINLY BETWEEN MAF/SJT AND
BGS/ABI. 24/18Z NAM/GFS AND 24/00Z 4-KM NSSL/NMM-WRF FORECASTS ALL
APPEAR TO BE TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF ONGOING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY SIGNAL A MORE RAPID CESSATION OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA THIS EVENING.
.GRAMS.. 11/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
32040073 31340160 30800211 30260259 30260320 30550340
30990314 31680264 32180208 32630148 33000081 32700037
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