SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251954
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-252230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...ERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251954Z - 252230Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM ERN WY SWD
INTO SERN CO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS/MTNS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER
GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH DMGG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADO/S
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF BACKED SFC WINDS/BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMPBELL
COUNTY WY SWD TO A LEE CYCLONE 20 NM EAST OF DENVER TO NEAR
PUEBLO...WHERE IT INTERSECTED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SEWD
ACROSS FAR SERN CO /FROM MORNING CONVECTION IN WRN KS/. EAST OF THE
LEE TROUGH...THE AIRMASS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND DIMINISHING CINH /LESS THAN
100 J/KG/. TO THE WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH...TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LARAMIE MTNS IN SERN WY
SWD THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CO ROCKIES WHERE CINH WAS LESS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM HIGHER BASED
CONVECTION NW OF DEN METRO AREA WAS MOVING SEWD...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LEE TROUGH/LOW CENTER WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WWD ACROSS
ELBERT...ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. WHEN/WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
MERGE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ESE OF
THE DENVER METRO AREA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BRIEF STORM-SCALE MERGING AND LOCALIZED ENHANCED UPDRAFT
STRENGTH MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. GIVEN WEAK
LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AND PULSE IN NATURE INITIALLY. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH /OWING TO APPROACHING NRN
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH/ MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS LATER
THIS EVENING IF SUFFICIENT REMOVAL OF REMAINING CINH OCCURS OVER
PANHANDLE OF NEB/ERN HIGH PLAINS OF CO. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW IN THESE AREAS.
..CROSBIE.. 08/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
37030460 38650505 39760511 40540529 43620585 43830502
43310423 41020256 38700247 37660254 37070301
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