SWODY2
SPC AC 250532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ARE IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS WITH THE MODELS
MOVING THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY
EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
35 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ASSUMING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE
SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THE EXTENT
OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 08/25/2008
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