SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141629
NEZ000-141800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND ECNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141629Z - 141800Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ROTATING STORMS MOVE NEWD
INTO ECNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...HOWEVER WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CO
WITH THE RUC MODEL ANALYZING A VORTICITY MAX MOVING NEWD INTO FAR
SRN NEB ATTM. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IN A BAND OF FOCUSED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS EVIDENT ON
THE SRN NEB PROFILER WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
.BROYLES.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
40630064 40160043 40069982 40529848 41439720 42049726
42039832 41279982
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