SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140427
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-140530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...TX...OK...KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 140427Z - 140530Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT TO POSE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
RECENT RAPID STORM INITIATION IN THE TX PNHDL APPEARS LINKED TO
DRYLINE RETREAT/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND EMERGING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY
MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON
RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED TO
INCREASE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ONGOING
STORMS ARE WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP-LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40KT LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT BY LATEST NAM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL
GUIDANCE BE IN ERROR AND GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE
APPARENT...THE SITUATION WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE REASSESSED.
.CARBIN.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
37249977 35899973 34610068 34910137 36030129 37120093
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