SWOD48
SPC AC 140740
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME SOMEWHAT MORE IN LINE WITH
THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER PATTERN DAYS 4-7. CONSIDERABLE
AGREEMENT EXISTS WITHIN THE MODELS FROM LATE IN THE DAY ON DAY 6
/I.E. FRI. OCT. 19/ THROUGH DAY 7...AFTER WHICH SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE BEGINS.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE IN
LINE THROUGH DAY 7...CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST DAY 5
/THU. OCT. 18/. THIS DAY -- DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CONUS --
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF DAY 5...THE GFS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOWER OVER
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW.
AS A RESULT...IT DEPICTS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS...WITH
A POTENTIALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS A LARGER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITHOUT THE DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THUS...THIS
MODEL DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW INVOF IA...WITH A COLD FRONT
SURGING SEWD ACROSS AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA ATTM FOR DAY 5.
STORMS/SOME SEVERE THREAT APPEAR LIKELY DAY 4 /WED. OCT.
17/...ROUGHLY FROM ERN KS/MO SWD INTO TX/LA...BUT DEGREE OF THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.
.GOSS.. 10/14/2007
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