SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140653
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-140900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KS...SRN/ERN NEB.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702...
VALID 140653Z - 140900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702
CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WANING AND BECOMING MORE
MRGL...WHILE SHIFTING EWD. PER COORDINATION W/GLD-DDC...WRN
PORTIONS WW ALREADY HAVE BEEN CLEARED...AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY
BE EXPUNGED FROM WW WITH EWD EXTENT IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE AS PRESENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT. MRGL HAIL THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NEAR NRN PERIPHERY OF
50 KT SSWLY LLJ -- WILL EXPAND/SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NEB.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SPATIAL TREND OF PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH NEWD EXTENT AWAY FROM CURRENT WW
AREA...ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY SOON.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONES OVER NWRN KS BETWEEN RSL-HLC...AND
N-CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE N GUY. COLD FRONT CONNECTING THEM SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL SWRN KS...WHILE MORE DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD PAST I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARD NRN 1-2 TIERS OF KS
COUNTIES...NE RSL. TIME SERIES OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR
OBSERVED SFC CONDITIONS...SUGGESTS CINH IS INCREASING AND DECREASING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT...WHILE BEHIND FRONT...POSTFRONTAL CAA INTENSIFIES AND
STABLE LAYER DEEPENS. WHILE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF HAIL PRODUCTION WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL OR FOR MORE THAN SPORADIC HAIL PRODUCTION FROM TSTMS APPEARS TO
BE WANING.
.EDWARDS.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
36980031 37899971 39399921 40419940 42009671 40209671
38259800 36939968 36940018
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