DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141610
SWODY1
SPC AC 141608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES THIS AM CONTINUES EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER WINDS ROTATING
AROUND TO E SIDE OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT AS OF 16Z LOCATED FROM NCENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO EXTREME
NWRN OK TO ECENTRAL NM. THERE IS A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 35-40KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM W CENTRAL TX
THRU WRN OK INTO S KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE CINH AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING FROM N TO S WITH INITIAL SURFACE BASED
STORMS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT AND MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. WITH PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...STORM MODE SHOULD RATHER QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR
ACROSS KS. SUPERCELLS/TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS KS MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 00Z AFTER WHICH WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT WILL BECOME PRIMARY
THREAT AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINEAR MODE.

ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK INTO NWRN TX...EXPECT A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...MLCAPES WILL INCREASE
TO 2000 J/KG PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO THERE IS A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS. TORNADOS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT CAN INITIATE IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK THIS EVENING ENHANCING
THE STORM RELATIVELY INFLOW/HELICITY.

OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

.HALES/LEVIT.. 10/14/2007

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