SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142018
OKZ000-TXZ000-142215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL OK/NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142018Z - 142215Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A WEATHER
WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MOVES EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE NEAR 2000
J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS AND CURRENTLY
OBSERVED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HOWEVER...LATEST 18Z RUC MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER TIME....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MODE IS MAINLY A
LINEAR-TYPE SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH DISCRETE CELLS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AND DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. A
SPECIAL 19Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SOME COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
SINCE 12Z...INDICATING THAT THE CAP OVER THE REGION IS DIMINISHING
RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS COOLING IN THIS LAYER
CONTINUES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. ONCE
THE CAP HAS BROKEN...STORMS WILL FORM AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SEVERE OVER TIME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
.LEVIT.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
35669957 35969901 35789790 35239782 34449788 33799802
33689904 33719973 33860021 34680025 35210003
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment