MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1574

ACUS11 KWNS 311846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311845
MIZ000-WIZ000-312015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI / ERN UPPER MI / FAR NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311845Z - 312015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH UNDERGOING
AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BISECTING THE U.P. OF MI AND WI. ALTHOUGH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
RESULTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND CONFINE ANY SEVERE THREAT TO A FEW POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 07/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON 45848415 44428773 44338998 44859034 46548608 46638433
45848415

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