MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 312122
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-010021-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0188
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL/COASTAL SC...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING UNLIKELY

VALID 312121Z - 010021Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE GA/SC COAST AND EXTENDING ALONG THE GA/FL
PANHANDLE BORDER. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN HIGH FFG VALUES IN PLACE.


DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAS GRADUALLY MERGED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE
STORM MOTIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY SLOW AND GENERALLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. THE 20Z RAP SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER A REGION WHICH STILL HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/JG WITHOUT MUCH INHIBITION.
ADDITIONALLY...THESE PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH NIGHTFALL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST
BEYOND 00Z. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN
MAXIMIZED. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD CHANGE MUCH IN THE MEANWHILE ALTHOUGH FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY GIVEN RATHER HIGH FFG VALUES. THE
CHARLESTON SC RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
ALONG THE AXIS OF SURFACE OUTFLOW WITH STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES
HAVING EXCEEDED 4 INCHES. IN GENERAL...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT SO MOST OF THE
ASSESSMENT AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAVE BEEN BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...DUAL-POL QPE ESTIMATES...AND STORM MODE.


RUBIN-OSTER

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 31808608 31938576 31958427 32068300 32428206 33348120
33468006 33017979 32067997 31328055 30788150 30478270
30358378 30338489 30518559 30808618 31268646 31808608

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