DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311725
SWODY2
SPC AC 311723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EMANATING NWD
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE IS ANTICIPATED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST TROUGH AND EJECT TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES BY THU AFTERNOON.
SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER FLOW
AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC REGIME THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD LIE INVOF THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH A
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
A COUPLE OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU WITHIN
A WAA REGIME AS LOW-LEVEL SLYS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE D1
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINING 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES
DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IS UNCLEAR...BUT ROBUST INSOLATION
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND THE LEE TROUGH. WITHIN AN EML
PLUME YIELDING RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP SHOULD
RESULT IN AMPLE BUOYANCY /CENTERED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE/ WITH
MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE
THE GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S EVOLVING E/SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER
PLAINS WITH THREATS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL PERSISTING INTO EARLY FRI.

...NRN ROCKIES...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY DURING THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AS MID-LEVEL DCVA INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON....WHICH
RENDERS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
/ESPECIALLY WITH NWRN EXTENT/. BUT WITHIN A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE...A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH RISKS OF WIND/HAIL WHERE POCKETS OF
GREATER INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.

..GRAMS.. 07/31/2013

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