MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2114

ACUS11 KWNS 161718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161718
FLZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161718Z - 161915Z

STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS N-CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW...BUT ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/MOVES ONSHORE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN FL
NEAR JACKSONVILLE SWWD TO NEAR HORSESHOE_BEACH. A ZONE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR ALLOWING DIABATIC
HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG. A LINE OF STORMS ABOUT 25-30
NM OFFSHORE IS MOVING EAST AT 30-35 KT AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG GIVEN
WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS COULD WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INLAND. MOREOVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE
FAIRLY WARM. OTHER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW WITH 30-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29178130 28658241 29188285 29468323 29858290 30218149
29178130

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