SWOD48
SPC AC 160847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD DEVELOPING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST AND MOVING THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY/DAY 5. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
ADVECT NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 AND INTO THE SERN U.S. ON
THURSDAY/DAY 7. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 10/16/2009
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