SWODY1
SPC AC 160540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AS
DOMINANT SFC HIGH BUILDS/EXPANDS SEWD ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN OVER FL AS
PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET SAGS SWD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S.
TROUGH. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE
INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT FROM
SRN LA INTO SRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
PSEUDO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE
RATES IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...WHILE ANY
MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD MIGRATE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE
SRN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..DARROW/GRAMS.. 10/16/2009
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