Friday, October 16, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161244
SWODY1
SPC AC 161243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RDG/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING ND CONTINUES SE TO THE LWR MS/LWR TN
VLYS. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A SERIES OF WEAKER PERTURBATIONS
WILL CONTINUE ESE FROM AR/MS INTO AL/GA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING N FL MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ESEWD. THE
FRONT SHOULD REACH A DAB-TPA LINE THIS EVE...AND BE NEAR LK
OKEECHOBEE BY 12Z SAT.

...FL...
SFC HEATING SHOULD TEMPORARILY BOOST TSTM COVERAGE ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF WSW/ENE COLD FRONT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY. ADDITIONAL MORE
WIDELY SCTD STORMS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG SW/NE
CONFLUENCE AXIS SE OF FRONT.

DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH. WHILE THIS WILL
SERVE TO INCREASE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR...SWD COMPONENT OF
FRONTAL MOVEMENT LIKELY WILL KEEP PACE WITH THE INCREASING FLOW
...AND SHUNT AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION SWD WITH TIME.

WHILE LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION OF HI PW /CLOSE TO 2 INCHES/ AND 30+ KT
DEEP WLY SHEAR MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE AS FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH
INDUCES SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE GA/SC CST...REDUCING
CONVERGENCE OVER FL.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/16/2009

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