SWODY1
SPC AC 161601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA IS UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING FROM SERN GA
WSWWD ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG MUCH OF
PENINSULA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INLAND ACROSS
TPA CWA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DEVELOP MUCH OF THE REMAINING
AREAS DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
REDEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT
DROPS SWD.
GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY TODAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT WESTERLY SHEAR
COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS MARGINAL GIVEN THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY LINE SEGMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
..HALES/GARNER.. 10/16/2009
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