SWODY1
SPC AC 231959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE ERN DAKS...
..CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS...FIRST BATCH OF COLDER AIR WAS SURGING EWD
INTO PORTIONS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB PNHDL AND NERN CO. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT...MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST PVA...WAS JUST
CROSSING THE DIVIDE. CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ON
THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG FROM EXTREME NERN CO NWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKS. CINH APPEARS TO
BE ERODING...OWING TO HEATING AND INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APCHG UPR TROUGH...AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE FROM
THE INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG THE FIRST FRONT FROM WRN NEB INTO
CNTRL SD BEFORE 21Z. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME
NERN CO LATER IN THE AFTN...WHILE EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD ERN ND.
DEEP LAYER FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BACK TO SSWLY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...AND MRR PROFILER EXHIBITS VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE NEAR 30 KTS. LINEAR FORCING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL
FOSTER FAST EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. EMBEDDED ROTATING
CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLE WITH
LARGE HAIL...BUT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS AS
LINEAR TRANSITIONS OCCUR.
SVR THREATS WILL BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW AND AS THE STORMS EXIT THIS
ZONE...A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SVR PROBABILITIES WILL ENSUE AFTER
ABOUT 03Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ISOLD STORMS MAY
STILL YIELD HIGH WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/ERN ND WELL INTO
THE NIGHT.
.RACY.. 09/23/2007
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