SWODY2
SPC AC 231706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...
..PLAINS TO UPR GRTLKS...
UPR SYSTEM EVOLVING IN THE WEST TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GRT BASIN...WILL REACH
KS/NEB LATE MONDAY WHILE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY. AT THE SFC...MAIN COLD
FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...REACHING A WRN WI-CNTRL KS-TX S PLAINS LINE BY 12Z TUE.
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR.
MESSY CONVECTIVE FCST LIKELY TO UNFOLD ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION NEWD TO THE UPR GRTLKS. A RAPID INJECTION OF TROPICAL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT ACCOMPANYING THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL SIGNATURE OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD WEAKLY CAPPED SOUNDINGS WELL AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRTLKS
REGION ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EASILY BY
EARLY AFTN FROM IA NWD INTO MN AND WI AS NRN PORTION OF THE MAIN UPR
TROUGH EDGES EWD. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FARTHER SW ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS AS THE MORE ENERGETIC PORTION /H5 JET STREAK OF 55+
KTS/ OF THE UPR TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
STRONGEST BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE COLDER AIR WEST OF THE
PRIMARY FRONT...BUT AVAILABILITY OF AT LEAST 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. POORER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT
RISK SUGGESTS THAT DMGG WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SVR RISKS. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY AND
FARTHER SW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
THE SVR THREATS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH WANING PROBABILITIES BY MID-EVENING FROM IA NEWD INTO
THE GRTLKS. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND PROSPECTS MAY LINGER
LONGER OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
EWD AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FEEDS A POTENTIAL MCS ACROSS NRN KS/NEB
INTO IA BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
..AR/LA...
FETCH OF SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD INTO THE LWR
MS VLY/MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN STATES
HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME...MODEST UPR LEVEL JET WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPR LOW MOVING NWD INTO E TX. TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS MAY GROW STG WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND NRN LA MONDAY AFTN...AND MAY APPROACH
SVR LIMITS. BACKGROUND SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...MAY
AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL TURNING SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF ISOLD TORNADOES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.
.RACY.. 09/23/2007
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