SWODY1
SPC AC 111620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND N OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NWRN TX THROUGH
NERN OK. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM OF POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STEADILY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO
CNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD GRADUALLY EWD AMIDST MODEST
INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG. SHALLOW/NOCTURNALLY-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DAMPEN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. GIVEN LINEAR/CLUSTER
MODES...LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY.
...FOUR CORNERS...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WHERE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION.
..GRAMS/HALES.. 11/11/2010
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