SWOD48
SPC AC 110947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...IT REMAINS
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT ANY POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST THE
INITIATION OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO OR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY REMOTE.
COMPOUNDING MATTERS...MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES VERY LARGE
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
..KERR.. 11/11/2010
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