SWODY3
SPC AC 110741
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A VERY
STRONG UPPER JET CONTINUING TO NOSE AROUND ITS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY...THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SAME TIME...WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH... ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND GULF COAST STATES. AND A SURFACE
CYCLONE MAY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
STRENGTH THAT THIS IMPULSE MAY MAINTAIN...AND NUMEROUS OTHER SHORT
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING SLOW TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE
INFLUX OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK TO
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LOWER MOISTURE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD EVEN WEAKER...IF ANY...INSTABILITY...
PROBABLY NEGATING THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 11/11/2010
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