SWODY3
SPC AC 150713
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE FAST/LARGELY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SURFACE STORM
SYSTEM. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MORE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SEWD-MOVING PORTION OF THIS FRONT MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
SOME NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE MID MO VALLEY REGION NOT ONLY
NEAR THE NRN FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN BUT LIKEWISE NEAR THE
SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER FLOW FIELD ALOFT...THE RESULTING KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA. STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE
OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..GOSS.. 09/15/2010
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