SWOD48
SPC AC 150851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CANADIAN
UPPER LOW -- ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 4 /SAT. 9-18/. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. AS THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS CROSSING THE ROCKIES DAY 5 /SUN. 9-19/....SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A MIGRATING
CYCLONE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS
THROUGH DAYS 7-8.
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
DAY 4...THOUGH VERY MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT DOES NOT
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS AMPLE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS A LITTLE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONGER
STORMS...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT ATTM TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.
..GOSS.. 09/15/2010
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