SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150639
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN NEB...CENTRAL-NRN KS...EXTREME NERN
CO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661...663...
VALID 150639Z - 150845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
661...663...CONTINUES.
PRIMARY MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD 25-30 KT FROM NWRN INTO
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS. EARLIER SUPERCELL IN GLD-GOVE REGION HAS
MERGED WITH TAIL END OF QLCS...WHILE SEGMENT FARTHER N BETWEEN
HLC-HYS HAS BOWED OUT WITH WELL-DEFINED REAR-INFLOW JET EVIDENT IN
BASE VELOCITY DATA. GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS -- 47 KT -- WERE MEASURED
AT HLC AT 605Z...ALTHOUGH MOST INTENSE PART OF BOWING SEGMENT PASSED
BETWEEN THERE AND I-70. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCINH CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY IN PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR...BECAUSE OF SFC
DIABATIC COOLING. HOWEVER...FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
QLCS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL WITH FAVORABLY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR BOOSTED TO LFC. BAND OF TSTMS W THROUGH S OF
SLN...DEVELOPING ALONG ERN LIMB OF 35-45 KT LLJ THAT IS FCST TO VEER
SOMEWHAT FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF MCS. AT SOME INDEFINITE
POINT...MLCINH SHOULD BECOME TOO STG FOR APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED SVR
THREAT...HOWEVER...PRIND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION OF WW 663.
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN ZONE
OF ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ATOP OUTFLOW POOL FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
LINGERS IN THAT ENVIRONMENT...OVER PORTIONS SRN NEB AND NRN
KS...ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF ELEVATED TSTM
ORGANIZATION. THIS REGIME MAY BE SUPPORTING ACTIVITY EVIDENT OVER
NERN CO AND FROM IML TO SE OF MCK...AS OF 630Z. FOR THIS
REASON...WW 663 CLEARANCE MIGHT NOT NEED TO BE IMMEDIATE BEHIND MCS.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS MRGL ENOUGH THAT REMAINDER WW 661 MAY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z AS SCHEDULED.
..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 37699763 37940115 39790277 40440273 40870105 40159828
39259744 37789682 37699763
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