DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100850
SWOD48
SPC AC 100849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE
EXTENT OF GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THIS TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND A POINT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONALLY...VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE
MODELS...AND THE SPREAD WITHIN VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE
LARGE...CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY WILL BE
NECESSARY SOMEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ...POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 11/10/2013

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