DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101953
SWODY1
SPC AC 101951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 11/10/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/

...S FL...

A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.

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